Hey Guys – it’s Friyay!
Covid-19 is raging through Jamaica, the land we love, as Covid-19 settles down in a few other Countries or most G-7 nations. Recently, a few colleagues, analysts and market pundits were recently overheard saying that the Chief Medical Officer (“CMO”) or other experts said 1 in every 2 Jamaicans have Covid. While we enjoy numbers as we love the stock market, we went on to say, its impossible that 1 in every 2 Jamaicans have Covid, are you crazy?
Even if the adult population were considered, that would mean 1.1 Million persons or more (total guesstimate) would have Covid right now, which is not factual, so where does this come from. One person opined, well they mean the confirmation rate from the testing size or in statistics as they call it, the sample size of the data.
- So, let us say we traced, or monitored or persons who felt symptoms and therefore 2,000 got tested, and from 2,000, 1,000 gave back positives, which the outcome is 50% or this “TALK” 1 in 2…
- That does not necessarily mean if you test 2.2 Million people, 1.1 Million will test positive, so, let us clear this up, because we get this a lot now even in our DMs.
- The sample size is 2,000 and not 2.2 Million, 2,000 is 0.09% of this total number… we had to take out calculator out for this… going back to Common Entrance and Algebra days, it does not even sound like the this is t-stat (using google here) appropriate…
It seems from speaking, listening, typing, and reading our supporters/ readers messages, Jamaica is tired, frustrated, etc. with Covid like any Country. Rightfully so, we have been in this for approximately twelve (12) months, and it continues.
There is a term in the game and life of tennis called, “No Man’s Land”. Typically, you never want to get stuck there. You will lose most battles against your opponent and the coach or even someone in the crowd would shout at you. You either volley or baseline it and continue to battle. Either way your strategy is clear. Key word is “clear”.
Jamaica, it seems clearly has been in no man’s land for too long now, and the leadership should either “go for it and attack the net” and open the flood gates or “pull fully back to the baseline” and be conservative and just hit a steady groundstroke. Some may be harder and some softer, but you stay in the game.
In either case, there are consequences, but as a people there is a clear message that there is action, and a change in tone and message. We did a small survey recently and spoke to a few fun, loving, persons of all professions, and one said in reply, “Is better the boss just tell us to drink Chicken Soup at this Stage” but we need to hear and feel a change of message…
The Markets are similar, if the sentiment that is above does not change in Jamaica soon, that is the health sentiment and the message, do not expect your portfolio to change either in the short term. Expect to see the JSE/ local markets sideways for some time, that is unlike the international markets, and in particular the U.S. markets – Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Markets will always trade on confidence. You will have your anomalies that have Covid resistant earnings, but human feelings and confidence are an important element.
Besides the stimulus plan, and some may argue, other nations and in particular the U.S. are able to afford that, round 1, round 2, etc. there has been decisive and continuous announcements and non-stop action, weekly, or every 2 weeks around, health & the economy by Biden and team in the U.S.
It is the action that will drive the markets.
- Despite most of the JSE being sideways YTD (year to date), GraceKennedy (JSE: GK) keep throttling, with price movement now around J$ 88-90… when last we spoke about GraceKennedy, we were seeing J$ 70… Expect J$ 100 plus in the short-term…
- Financial Powerhouses and Players are powering up quietly. Barita Investments and Proven Investments (JSE: BIL, JSE: PIL), respectively.
- Barita Investments has added a new power name Director in Michael Hylton
- Proven Investments has announced a large acquisition listed on the JSE website
- USD 10 Year Treasury: As we said earlier this week, it is worrying. Do not take you eye off of it, for April 2021, and the next few months. It will have an impact on Jamaica and the emerging markets and if you are deep into bonds already, be careful. “Don’t blink if someone tells you, just hold it if you are getting a good coupon.”
- Stripe hits US$ 95 Billion Valuation on US$ 600 Million Raise; two (2) young Irish guys just coding; sure, there is a deeper story and a Netflix episode coming soon. Watch out for the IPO soon or eventually.
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